Hoosiers Can Expect Increased Grocery Prices Ahead of Fourth of July

Hoosiers can’t seem to escape rising food prices. Indiana Farm Bureau’s annual summer cookout market basket, featuring some of America’s summertime staples, revealed Hoosiers are paying an average of $69.47 for a cookout feeding 10 people this summer, or $6.95 per person – an 8% increase compared to last year. That’s similar to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Food Price Outlook for grocery store food purchases, which increased 5.8% this past May compared to this time last year.

Indiana’s market basket price is approximately 3% more, or 18 cents more, than the U.S. average price of $6.77 per person. This is the first time since 2019 that the total Indiana market basket price came in above the U.S. average. Additionally, the Indiana price is up 5%, or 34 cents more, than the average price for the Midwest region of $6.61 per person.

“We are still seeing food inflation throughout the whole supermarket, specifically with items that require more processing, labor and transportation,” said INFB Chief Economist Dr. Todd Davis. “This impacts items like cookies and chips that are non-perishable with no urgency to sell by a strict deadline, meaning grocery stores don’t need to discount to move inventory.”

The total market basket price of $69.47 includes ground beef, cheese, hamburger buns, pork chops, chicken breasts, pork and beans, potato salad, strawberries, chips, ice cream, cookies and lemonade.

All items on the shopping list are more expensive in Indiana than last year, except cheese and pork chops, which were relatively unchanged. Many items were less than the national average, including ice cream, strawberries, pork and beans, hamburger buns, lemonade and potato salad. The items that came in significantly above the U.S. average were chocolate chip cookies, chicken breasts and chips.

While food prices have increased, so have input prices for the farmers growing that food. Drought in the west and Midwest has significantly impacted feeding costs for livestock, which has increased consumer prices for meat as well.

According to the USDA, just 14 cents of every retail food dollar can be attributed to farm production, after accounting for input costs. Using this figure, the farmer’s share of this $69.47 market basket would be less than $10. The rest is for food processing, packaging, transportation, wholesale and retail distribution, and food service preparation.

“Like consumers, farmers are price takers, not price makers,” said Isabella Chism, INFB 2nd vice president. “While food prices are increasing, the amount farmers are being paid doesn’t cover the sharp increase in their input expense. When our crops or animals are ready to sell, we have to sell at the current commodity price.”

“This year’s summer cookout market basket reflects what Hoosiers are seeing when they go to their local grocery stores,” Chism explained. “Farmers are consumers too, and we experience the price increase at the grocery store as well as on the farm.”

The INFB summer cookout market basket survey was conducted in early June by volunteer shoppers across the state who collected prices on specific food items from one of their local grocery stores. Volunteer shoppers were asked to look for the best possible prices, without taking advantage of special promotional coupons or purchase deals.

“This survey was conducted before many stores offer Fourth of July sales, so if you go to the grocery store now you are likely to see slightly reduced prices than what this market basket shows,” noted Dr. Davis.

Indiana’s survey was completed in conjunction with a national survey administered by the American Farm Bureau Federation. More details about AFBF’s national summer cookout market basket results can be found atfb.org.

Cookout Items (INFB survey) 2022 Indiana Total Cost 2023 Indiana Costs % Change of Indiana Costs (2022 to 2023) % Difference between 2023 Indiana Costs and 2023 U.S. Average
Ground Beef (2 lbs.) $10.88 $12.16 +12% +5%
Cheese (1 lb.) $3.57 $3.54 -1% +0.3%
Cookies (13 oz bag) $4.07 $4.75 +17% +22%
Ice cream (half gallon) $4.49 $4.67 +4% -12%
Strawberries (2 pints) $3.79 $3.80 +0.3% -17%
Chips (16 oz bag) $4.40 $5.04 +15% +11%
Chicken Breast (2 lbs.) $8.87 $9.30 +5% +14%
Pork Chops (3 lbs.) $15.15 $15.12 -0.2% +5%
Pork and beans (32 oz) $2.08 $2.38 +14% -2%
Hamburger Buns (1 package) $1.50 $1.95 +30% -14%
Lemonade (2.5 qts.) $3.13 $3.66 +17% -2%
Potato Salad (2.5 lbs.) $2.79 $3.11 +11% -10%
AVERAGE TOTAL MEAL PRICE $64.32 $69.47 +8% +3%
*The total meal price listed above is for a group of 10 individuals.
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